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A warm winter is coming, but with more snow

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

However, the completions will not be as high as last year. No water regime, good harvest forecasts
From December 8th, skiers can hit the slopes. I’m not sure if it will rain at Christmas
Despite the cold and snowstorms on Saturday and Sunday, a relatively warm winter awaits us. Temperatures will be about 1.5 degrees above normal, Sofia University climatologist Prof. Georgi Ratschev commented to “24 Hours – 168 Stories”. After the sudden cooling over the weekend, a gradual increase in temperatures is imminent, adds National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) forecaster Prof. Ilian Gospodinov.

The season is unlikely to be as warm as last year. It will be a little colder. It is unlikely that it will happen like in 2012. Bulgarians may not remember it, but then in February there were 20 consecutive icy days – with maximum temperatures below zero, recalled Prof. Ratschev.

Astronomically speaking, this winter will begin on December 22nd and transition to spring on March 20th next year. But for specialists in atmospheric phenomena, winter occupies the coldest months – December, January and February.

For the first of these, average normal or typical temperatures over the last 30 years are expected – between 0 and 3.5 degrees. The data is a monthly average, explains Prof. Georgi Rachev. The last 31 days of the year begin with relatively cooler weather compared to the last few weeks. So far, apart from a few hurricanes, we have enjoyed a golden autumn. They led to a snow cover in northern Bulgaria, especially in the high parts of the mountains – over 2000 meters.

In January 2024, the trend of the last three winters will continue – it will be around 1 degree warmer than normal. It is expected

monthly average

be temperature

between -2 and +1.5-2 degrees

This is the opinion of both the European global model and the American global model.

Usually there is a discrepancy in the expected predictions between the two teams, and something ends up happening in the middle between one and the other’s calculations. But this year they are remarkably united. They are also convinced that the average monthly temperature in Bulgaria will be 1.5 degrees warmer in February. This also applies to the entire Balkan region.

In summary, Prof. Rachev noted that a good season is ahead with a temperature about 1.5 degrees higher than normal.

Forecasts for more rainfall depend on the processes that will dominate Europe. They ensure increased cyclone activity during the winter season. In the first half of the season they will travel mainly over Western and Northern Europe, commented Prof. Gospodinov. From mid-January onwards, the phenomena that bring humidity and precipitation will increasingly occur over southern Europe, where Bulgaria is also located.

After a dry summer and autumn, the precipitation standard was reached for the first time in November. Somewhere it even rains twice as much as normal – Sofia, the Balkans, the Rhodopes.

For western Bulgaria it is normal for between 30 and 40 liters of rain and snow to fall per square meter in January, now it will be about 20% more. There is such a probability, but it’s all a question of which scenario will be realized, explains Prof. Ratschew.

Rainfall will be around and above normal across southeastern Europe, particularly in the second half of the season. The probability of snow is greater, commented Prof. Gospodinov. Especially in the mountains. Although we assume that there will be no snow in the lowlands in warmer weather, there probably will be in the highlands.

Prof. Rachev expects that overall winter precipitation will be at the statistical average of the last 30 years: it will be between 110 and 180 liters per square meter in the plains and valleys, and over 200 liters per square meter in the mountains. According to Mr. Assoc . Gospodinov, rainfall will be around and above normal levels for the season. Skiers can enjoy natural snow on the slopes, he adds.

When asked whether we should expect snow at Christmas, Prof. Rachev announced:

“A week at the earliest

before the vacation

can be predicted

Will it snow? A blanket of snow had already formed on Sunday and had already melted in the low-lying areas. It remained permanently at an altitude above 1,500 – 2,000 meters, which is a good indicator.” And Assoc. Gospodinov adds that it is not excluded that it will snow at the end of December. The reason for this is that currently there is little chance that cyclone activity will be high in the European region during this period and it is precisely these processes that lead to rainfall, but it is still too early to say whether it will be right for Christmas .

“The relatively cool weather in the mountains will allow the accumulated blanket to be preserved and perhaps we can do a little skiing on December 8,” suggests Prof. Rachev. And that is a prerequisite for it

earlier start

the winter season

The skiers will be happy because last year there was 20cm on the track and the rest was nice green grass.”

And this year, the snow cover that forms early creates a special microclimate, which means that temperatures above 1500 meters remain below zero. This in turn allows the snow guns to be used after December 8th. “Let us hope that there will not be a sudden warming, which is fundamentally not impossible at the beginning of winter,” the climatologist added.

As far as the harvest is concerned, the forecasts are favorable, according to experts. There will be no hunger. “Rain provides moisture to the soil, especially in the top 25cm layer.

The wet and rainy weather in November will fill the soil layer even to a depth of half a meter to a meter, the expert added. “The warmth allows the autumn plants to germinate and grow sufficiently to survive the cold temperatures in January without any problems.” So

they won’t freeze

The news is good, because in October there was practically no moisture in the surface layer of the soil.

The other good news is that there will be no water crisis this winter. The drinking dams are in good condition so far and the rainfall has maintained the level and even increased their useful volume. “If we do not drain them, as has been done, no settlement attached to a dam should have a water regime. I hope that it will finally be abolished in Pleven, it is a shame that similar things are happening in the 21st century.”

Warmer weather in winter will have a positive impact on the economy. Heating costs are reduced. This will be welcome for people considering that natural gas will increase again from December.

How often it will happen and how long the icing on city streets will last is now difficult to predict. Something that interests everyone, especially traumatologists in emergency centers, in front of whose offices the queues of people with broken limbs have not formed so long in the last three winters.

It is not yet possible to say what the weather will be like in March. It is known that there were quite cold months with a lot of snowfall in 2022.

The strange thing is that in the last three to five years we have had a slight shift in the ski season until March, says Prof. Rachev. At Easter there are usually still conditions for winter sports in our mountains. Not only is spring cooler, but snow accumulation has also shifted to March and April. It’s because of the current situation.
In general, the climate of Bulgaria depends on the transfer of air masses, which are of two types – oceanic or continental in origin, explains Prof. Rachev. If the former predominates, winter is milder and has more precipitation, while summer is cooler and has more precipitation.

Continentals come from Russia. When they come from there, the winter is cold and dry and the summer is hot and dry. But when both reach our land, their power usually wanes.

Source: www.newsbeezer.com